According to a definition provided by fbref, ‘xG (Expected Goals) is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it.’
By using an xG model, we can compare how teams have fared this season against what would normally have been expected of them.
So how have Sunderland fared this campaign? Is their current position of 7th in the league a fair reflection of their season? Or should they be higher or lower based on xG?
And what about their nearest promotion rivals? Have any side around them over or under performed this season?
Here, using data provided by FootballXG, we take a look at how the current League One table would according to their xG model:
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1. 24th: Crewe Alexandra
Current points haul: 25, current league position: 24th, xG points haul: 14, position in table according to xG: 24th Photo: James Chance
2. 23rd: Doncaster Rovers
Current points haul: 30, current league position: 23rd, xG points haul: 18, position in table according to xG: 23rd Photo: Nathan Stirk
3. 22nd: Fleetwood Town
Current points haul: 34, current league position: 20th, xG points haul: 26, position in table according to xG: 22nd Photo: Lewis Storey
4. 21st: Gillingham
Current points haul: 37, current league position: 19th, xG points haul: 31, position in table according to xG: 21st Photo: Jacques Feeney